I think Sully pinned it.

"Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom" (will-alib)
03/15/2019 at 13:37 • Filed to: None

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

While it’s easy to speculate about the crash of EA302 and similarities to the recent loss of Lion Air 610, I’m willing to bet crew training will turn out to be a factor. I had CRM beat into me in my charter flying days, but even the kids flying right seat in my company’s Caravans and Pilatuses had logged at least 700 hours.

DISCUSSION (11)

Aremmes > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom
03/15/2019 at 13:53

It does seem that Boeing went out of their way to paint the Max series as operationally equivalent to the older models, and downplaying the need for training on the new systems and their purpose. I can imagine airlines taking that into consideration when determining training requirements.

ttyymmnn > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom
03/15/2019 at 13:54

In Ethiopia, y ou had a 29-year-old captain with 8,000 hours (is that a lot? Not sure, or what type he got them on) teamed with a 200-hour FO. Description of the radio transmissions said the PIC sounded “panicky.” Sure, I would panic, but I’m not a pilot. I’m guessing the FO was, as my grandfather used to say, “about as useful as tits on a boar.” It sounds like these control problems may have occurred elsewhere , as reports by US pilots indicate, but none of those planes crashed, most likely because of superior training.

In the US, and likely in Europe also, we have a culture of flying. Most people who end up in command of an airliner started flying at a young age, or served in the military. Contrast that to Asia, where college grads are getting into flying at an older age and immediately put into airliners. And that may also explain why Boeing was so eager to put more computerized flying software into the MAX, to cater to those pilots who don’t necessarily have the skills (yet) to hand fly the plane. Remember Asiana 214 ?

WilliamsSW > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom
03/15/2019 at 14:02

Has it been confirmed that the FO on Ethiopian 302 really only had 200 hours?

That seems just so absurd to me, that I have a hard time believing it - and first reports are often wrong.

FFS, I have more hours than that - and I don’t belong anywhere near a 737 cockpit.

I think Sully got it right - the 737 needs fixing, AND training needs a hard look. It’s not either or.

Tristan > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom
03/15/2019 at 14:04

200 hours? Dear God.

I haven’t been following the news on the 737 Max 8 as much as I should , but in a conversation at work someone said they were talking to a Southwest pilot about the issue. Apparently, autopilot only utilizes one of the AoA probes, and if the probe fails or has an issue it forces the yoke into full descent and there’s a semi-complicated procedure requiring pilot and co-pilot coordination and familiarity . Pilot fights the yoke while the co stops the trim wheel and disables autopilot or some such procedure... I just fix planes (and very old ones, at that), I don’t fly them and I’m not an avionics guy . But it’s easy to see how a 200 hour pilot could be overwhelmed.

Cé hé sin > WilliamsSW
03/15/2019 at 14:21

You have to start som ewhere for goodness sake - if you’re a cardiologist there’ll be a day when you do your first heart op. You just won’t be doing it on your own. Same with commercial flying. Airlines prefer to take on peo ple with experience because training is so expensive , but the legacy carriers at least train ab initio. Just to give an example, BA, not an airline known for dropping planes from the sky , have positions for cadet pilots. Ryanair have started training having not done so in the past .

Ash78, voting early and often > Turbineguy: Nom de Zoom
03/15/2019 at 14:26

I chatted yesterday with a neighbor/friend who is a Southwest captain out of Midway. He’s all but convinced it’s training. When we talked out Ethiopian having the best reputation in all of Africa, he smiled and said “Yes...in Africa.”

That’s not culturally insensitive, it’s factual. He likened it to having noob regional commuter pilots (US) in charge of heavy jets. They may have the hours and the fundamentals, but they just don’t have the real experience and training.

SWA had already trained everyone on this over a year ago, even the non-MAX crews.

/but I ain’t one to gossip, so y’all didn’t hear this from me

WilliamsSW > Cé hé sin
03/15/2019 at 14:30

You have to start somewhere for goodness sake

Correct. That’s what Cessna 172's and flight simulators are for.

Cé hé sin > WilliamsSW
03/15/2019 at 17:00

Yes, and they’re part of the process. Just out of curiosity I checked what BA’s cadet training involves and found that while they’re not taking people on at the moment they outsource it to another company who require applicants to fund the whole thing themselves at a cost of nearly €100,000 (the days when the airline paid this seem to have gone) and it involves 18 months of ground, sim and flight training plus, if I read it correctly, a further 8 month of line training by the airline. More here .

It seems to work, BA haven’t had a fatality since 1985 and that one wasn’t down to the flight crew.

WilliamsSW > Cé hé sin
03/15/2019 at 17:57

I’m not sure about BA, but AA has a cadet program also. That will absolutely NOT get you in the right seat of an airliner with 200 hours though. I’d be willing to bet that’s true for BA also.

* US Federal Law* requires any flight crew member on a scheduled airline to have * 1,500* hours at a minimum. This would include a FO on any airline - including regionals. There are some exceptions - down to 750 hours if the entire 750 hours is in the military.

AA’s Cadet program suggests that a cadet could be a Regional FO (on a CRJ, Embraer or other RJ) in year 3 - which means the cadet would have 1,500 hours by then, per US law . Then the cadet would fly another *six* years before becoming a mainline FO.

I get that we’re spoiled in the US between the military and people who can afford the cost of building that time with little pay, and airlines in Africa probably can’t wait for 1,500 hour pilots - but 200 hours is utterly insane and unsafe.

Cé hé sin > WilliamsSW
03/15/2019 at 19:46

I’ve seen a great deal of argument about this hours question elsewhere, with some people becoming obsessive about the matter. Here’s a rebuttal from a contributor on pprune who seems to know what (s)he’s talking about:

Can we please, please, please not go down this road in this thread?

1: MPL Programs and ab initio pilots have been operating without impacting safety statistics for quite some time. It’s about the attitude of the student and the level of training they receive.
2: Perfectly fine aircraft have been flown into the ground by pilots of all levels of experience, be it 20.000hrs or 200hrs.
3: As has become clear from those nice ASRS reports as someone mentioned above, apparently 1500+ hr pilots in the US have plenty of difficulty to understand their own plane.

Please stop directl y correlating flight hours to skill. I’ve personally flown with 10.000+ hour idiots who couldn’t fly stick and rudder coordinated if their live depended on it and I’ve flown with 250hr fresh copilots with a solid head on their shoulders and I could’ve sworn they’ve been doing this for ages.

WilliamsSW > Cé hé sin
03/16/2019 at 00:21

But none of those statements give any credence to the idea that a 200 hour pilot belongs in an airliner?

Ab initio training is great - and done properly, it will take a pilot fewer hours to become proficient than if they’re randomly boring holes in the sky. American Airlines has an ab initio program. Still takes 1500 hours to fly pax in an RJ.

#2 is utterly irrelevant. Of course any pilot can crash. All else being equal, which pilot is more likely to crash??

#3 sounds like someone who has an axe to grind with either the US or Boeing, frankly. Boeing * has* handled this very poorly, as has the US FAA .

Of course there isn’t a direct correlation between skill and hours. Everyone is different. Airlines need to test for personality, decision making, CRM and many other skills besides looking at a logbook.

Any airline putting pilots on the line with that little time is just gambling that nothing will go wrong, or if it does, the captain will save it. And given how rarely airplanes fail now, they’re probably fine.

Until they’re not.